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Walsall vs Stockport County — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stockport County
Stockport County
8/12/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Walsall31%
×Draw26%
Stockport County43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.21
Stockport County
1.46

Stockport County creates 21% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 47 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.30
Stockport County
1.72

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Stockport County
1.13

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
57%
Walsall or Stockport County
74%
Draw or Stockport County
69%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
13%
Stockport County wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
70%
Walsall 2+ goals
34%
Walsall 3+ goals
12%
Stockport County 1+ goals
77%
Stockport County 2+ goals
43%
Stockport County 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
42%
Stockport County (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 158 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.30 + Stockport County defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Stockport County attack 1.72 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Walsall scores more
31%
level
26%
Stockport County scores more
43%

Stockport County at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Walsall vs Stockport County

Walsall beat Stockport County 2-1 in League Two on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.