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Stockport County vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Stockport County
Stockport County
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
10/1/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 12Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Stockport County51%
×Draw26%
Walsall23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockport County
1.53
Walsall
0.92

Stockport County creates 66% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 157 away

creates per match

Stockport County
1.74
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Stockport County
0.72
Walsall
1.32

finishing

Stockport County+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw
77%
Stockport County or Walsall
74%
Draw or Walsall
49%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+
27%
Walsall wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals
78%
Stockport County 2+ goals
45%
Stockport County 3+ goals
20%
Walsall 1+ goals
60%
Walsall 2+ goals
23%
Walsall 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)
69%
Walsall (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.72 · 46 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.74 + Walsall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Walsall attack 1.13 + Stockport County defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stockport County scores more
51%
level
26%
Walsall scores more
23%

Stockport County at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stockport County vs Walsall

Stockport County and Walsall drew 1-1 in League Two on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Edgeley Park in Stockport, Greater Manchester.