Walsall vs Portsmouth — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Walsall31%
Portsmouth44%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Portsmouth creates 23% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 134 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Walsall ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Walsall at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches
Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Walsall attack 1.30 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20
Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Walsall defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Portsmouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Luton
Barnsley
CharltonPortsmouth
Sunderland
Doncaster
Peterborough
Coventry
Burton Albion
Blackpool
Fleetwood Town
Oxford United
Gillingham
Accrington ST
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Southend
AFC Wimbledon
PlymouthWalsall
Scunthorpe
BradfordIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Walsall host Portsmouth on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 at 19:45. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
League One: Walsall 2–3 Portsmouth
Portsmouth beat Walsall 3-2 in League One on March 12, 2019.
Goals: B. Pitman (13' pen), O. Bogle (25'), V. Solomon-Otabor (68'), J. Guthrie (75', 90+4').
The match was played at Bescot Stadium in Walsall.