Walsall 0–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats | League One

Walsall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

3/31/2018

League One · Round 40Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Walsall31%

×Draw26%

Portsmouth43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.45

Walsall

1.18

Portsmouth

1.45

Portsmouth creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 137 away

1.25

creates per match

1.32

1.58

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Walsall

1.25

Portsmouth

1.32

allows per match

Walsall

1.58

Portsmouth

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

57%

Walsall or Portsmouth

74%

Draw or Portsmouth

69%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

13%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

69%

Walsall 2+ goals

33%

Walsall 3+ goals

12%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

77%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

42%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

42%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.25 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Portsmouth attack 1.32 + Walsall defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Walsall scores more

31%

level

26%

Portsmouth scores more

43%

Portsmouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff