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Walsall vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
Preview
15:00
Northampton
Northampton
11/28/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 17Bescot Stadium
Big match
38%
Walsall
model favours
38%27%35%
1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Walsall38%
×Draw27%
Northampton35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.27
Northampton
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 88 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
65%
Walsall or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
62%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
17%
Northampton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Northampton 1+ goals
70%
Northampton 2+ goals
34%
Northampton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
52%
Northampton (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Northampton attack 1.24 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more
38%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
35%

Walsall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
Northampton
Balanced
42%PossessionBiggest gap48%
63%Pass accuracy65%
11.7Shots11.9
1.39xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WalsallNorthampton

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Walsall
2
Draws
1
Northampton
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 33%
0–01–01–10–13–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Walsall
LDLLW
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Walsall host Northampton

November 28, 2026: Walsall take on Northampton in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Walsall host Northampton at Bescot Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.