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Northampton vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
M. Pinnock 4'
C. Wilkinson 50'
3/1/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton46%
×Draw27%
Walsall27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.40
Walsall
1.01

Northampton creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 156 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
73%
Northampton or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
54%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
22%
Walsall wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
75%
Northampton 2+ goals
41%
Northampton 3+ goals
17%
Walsall 1+ goals
64%
Walsall 2+ goals
27%
Walsall 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
63%
Walsall (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Walsall attack 1.13 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more
46%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
27%

Northampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. OsadebeWalsallWalsall · M
7.6

Match Events

4'
M. Pinnock
29'
Joss Labadie
48'
Tyler Magloire
50'
C. Wilkinson↳ G. Miller
62'
Joseph Mills
67'
A. Koiki← J. Mills
67'
D. Rodney← G. Miller
70'
Paul Lewis
75'
L. Tomlin← C. Wilkinson
80'
J. Eppiah← P. Lewis
90'
D. Rose← L. Appéré

Possession

49%Northampton

Shots

16Northampton

Pass accuracy

46%Northampton

Statistics

NorthamptonWalsall
Overview
49%Possession51%
16Total Shots13
6Corners6
14Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots13
4On Target4
8Off Target6
4Blocked3
10Inside Box7
6Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
302Total Passes301
143Accurate Passes168
47%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Northampton vs Walsall

Northampton and Walsall drew 1-1 in League Two on March 1, 2022.

Goals: M. Pinnock (4'), C. Wilkinson (50').

Walsall controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 16.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.