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Walsall vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Northampton
Northampton
L. Appéré 10'
2/5/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 30Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Walsall38%
×Draw27%
Northampton35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.27
Northampton
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 88 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
65%
Walsall or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
62%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
17%
Northampton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Northampton 1+ goals
70%
Northampton 2+ goals
34%
Northampton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
52%
Northampton (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Northampton attack 1.24 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more
38%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
35%

Walsall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. PinnockNorthamptonNorthampton · M
7.9

Match Events

10'
L. Appéré↳ M. Pinnock
46'
P. Lewis← A. McGowan
65'
Louis Appéré
66'
Liam Kinsella
67'
B. Lubala← J. Sowerby
71'
B. Kiernan← R. Devine
71'
T. Shade← E. Osadebe
77'
J. Labadie← J. Earing
88'
Joss Labadie
88'
Shaun McWilliams
89'
I. Kanu← A. Koiki

Possession

56%Walsall

Shots

9Walsall

Pass accuracy

56%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallNorthampton
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots8
4Corners2
13Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots8
3On Target7
2Off Target0
4Blocked1
5Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
391Total Passes317
232Accurate Passes145
59%Pass Accuracy46%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

League Two: Walsall 0–1 Northampton

Northampton beat Walsall 1-0 in League Two on February 5, 2022.

Goals: L. Appéré (10').

Walsall controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.