Walsall 0–2 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

J. Mellish 84'

R. Hepburn-Murphy 30'

2/23/2026

League Two · Round 34Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Walsall29%

×Draw26%

Milton Keynes Dons46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.52

Walsall

1.14

Milton Keynes Dons

1.52

Milton Keynes Dons creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 35 away

1.10

creates per match

1.74

1.31

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Walsall

1.10

Milton Keynes Dons

1.74

allows per match

Walsall

1.31

Milton Keynes Dons

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

54%

Walsall or Milton Keynes Dons

74%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

71%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

11%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

68%

Walsall 2+ goals

32%

Walsall 3+ goals

11%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

78%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

45%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

38%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.10 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.74 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Walsall scores more

29%

level

26%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

46%

Milton Keynes Dons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Kelly

Milton Keynes Dons · M

7.6

Match Events

26'

Alexander Pattison

30'

R. Hepburn-Murphy↳ A. Gilbey

44'

Daniel Crowley

45'

Aden Flint

58'

Jon Mellish

59'

R. Richards← C. Lakin

59'

J. Jellis← A. Pattison

69'

74'

76'

76'

82'

A. Loupalo-Bi← C. Clarke

84'

J. Mellish↳ M. Ekpiteta

86'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans← G. Jones

90+2'

A. Nemane← R. Hepburn-Murphy

90+2'

J. Sanders← L. Kelly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallMilton

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots7

0.47Expected Goals (xG)0.60

2Corners7

7Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots7

3On Target3

4Off Target1

0Blocked3

1Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

258Total Passes300

156Accurate Passes190

60%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1