Walsall 4–2 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

A. Adomah 81'

H. Williams 66'

L. Gordon 46'

D. Okagbue 32'

K. Thompson-Sommers 85'

S. Hogan 14'

1/18/2025

League Two · Round 27Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Walsall41%

×Draw24%

Milton Keynes Dons34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.41

Walsall

1.57

Milton Keynes Dons

1.41

Walsall creates 11% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 59 away

1.53

creates per match

1.53

1.29

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Walsall

1.53

Milton Keynes Dons

1.53

allows per match

Walsall

1.29

Milton Keynes Dons

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

66%

Walsall or Milton Keynes Dons

76%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

59%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

21%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

79%

Walsall 2+ goals

46%

Walsall 3+ goals

21%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

76%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

41%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

55%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.53 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.53 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Walsall scores more

41%

level

24%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

34%

Walsall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

A. Adomah

Walsall · F

8.2

Match Events

14'

23'

26'

27'

32'

46'

49'

58'

59'

K. Thompson-Sommers← J. Williams

66'

H. Williams

68'

J. White← L. Kelly

74'

C. Lakin← O. McEntee

74'

E. Harrison← J. Tomlinson

74'

79'

80'

81'

85'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallMilton

Overview

33%Possession67%

25Total Shots6

8Corners2

10Fouls5

Shots

25Total Shots6

9On Target3

14Off Target3

2Blocked0

14Inside Box2

11Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

249Total Passes529

150Accurate Passes424

60%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls5

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4

League Two: Walsall 4–2 Milton Keynes Dons

Walsall beat Milton Keynes Dons 4-2 in League Two on January 18, 2025.

Goals: S. Hogan (14'), D. Okagbue (32'), L. Gordon (46'), H. Williams (66'), A. Adomah (81'), K. Thompson-Sommers (85').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (67%) and registered 6 shots to 25.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.

Walsall vs Milton Keynes Dons — League Two 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Walsall 4–2 Milton Keynes Dons