Walsall 1–1 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leyton Orient

J. Low 20'

E. Turns 83'

2/11/2023

League Two · Round 31Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Walsall38%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.19

Walsall

1.25

Leyton Orient

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 157 home / 94 away

1.29

creates per match

1.17

1.20

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Walsall

1.29

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Walsall

1.20

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

65%

Walsall or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

62%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

16%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

36%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

70%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

33%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

52%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more

38%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

35%

Walsall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

I. El Mizouni

Leyton Orient · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

J. Low

22'

Robbie Willmott

31'

Jayden Sweeney

52'

C. Wilkinson← M. Stevens

54'

R. Sotiriou← T. Archibald

62'

J. Lyden← C. Clay

66'

A. Williams← J. Matt

66'

Y. Songo'o← I. Hutchinson

67'

77'

82'

83'

89'

O. McEntee← C. Wilkinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallLeyton

Overview

29%Possession71%

8Total Shots16

4Corners4

8Fouls4

Shots

8Total Shots16

2On Target5

4Off Target7

2Blocked4

7Inside Box6

1Outside Box10

Passing

29%Possession71%

217Total Passes571

113Accurate Passes468

52%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls4

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1