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Leyton Orient vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Walsall
Walsall
O. Beckles 58'
9/17/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Leyton Orient42%
×Draw27%
Walsall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leyton Orient
1.36
Walsall
1.13

Leyton Orient creates 20% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 156 away

creates per match

Leyton Orient
1.41
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Leyton Orient
1.13
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw
69%
Leyton Orient or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
58%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+
20%
Walsall wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals
74%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
39%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
16%
Walsall 1+ goals
68%
Walsall 2+ goals
31%
Walsall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
57%
Walsall (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Walsall attack 1.13 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Leyton Orient scores more
42%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
31%

Leyton Orient at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
L. VigourouxLeyton OrientLeyton Orient · G
7.5

Match Events

26'
Liam Kinsella
58'
O. Beckles
60'
A. Drinan← R. Sotiriou
66'
D. Cashman← I. Hutchinson
66'
T. Abraham← D. Johnson
68'
S. Ogie← D. Happe
76'
J. Brown← D. Pratley
76'
T. Archibald← P. Smyth
81'
Thomas James
85'
R. Maher← B. Comley

Possession

59%Leyton

Shots

10Leyton

Pass accuracy

56%Leyton

Statistics

LeytonWalsall
Overview
59%Possession41%
10Total Shots8
4Corners5
14Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots8
5On Target3
3Off Target2
2Blocked3
5Inside Box4
5Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
393Total Passes270
272Accurate Passes148
69%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls7
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Leyton Orient vs Walsall

Leyton Orient beat Walsall 1-0 in League Two on September 17, 2022.

Goals: O. Beckles (58').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Brisbane Road in London.