Walsall 4–0 Hartlepool: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hartlepool

D. Johnson 73', 58', 27'

B. Comley 21'

7/30/2022

League Two · Round 1Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Walsall47%

×Draw25%

Hartlepool28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.13

Walsall

1.54

Hartlepool

1.13

Walsall creates 36% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 81 away

1.29

creates per match

1.05

1.20

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Walsall

1.29

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Walsall

1.20

Hartlepool

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

72%

Walsall or Hartlepool

75%

Draw or Hartlepool

53%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

24%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

79%

Walsall 2+ goals

45%

Walsall 3+ goals

20%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

68%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

31%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

63%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Walsall scores more

47%

level

25%

Hartlepool scores more

28%

Walsall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

D. Johnson

Walsall · F

9.5

Match Events

21'

B. Comley

27'

D. Johnson

53'

Alex Lacey

55'

J. Hamilton← E. Taylor

58'

D. Johnson

68'

J. Earing← B. Comley

68'

L. Bennett← D. Daniels

73'

J. Sterry← R. Tumilty

73'

D. Johnson↳ E. Monthe

74'

D. James-Taylor← D. Johnson

80'

R. Maher← I. Hutchinson

80'

T. Abraham← A. Williams

86'

David Ferguson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallHartlepool

Overview

48%Possession52%

21Total Shots4

8Corners2

8Fouls13

Shots

21Total Shots4

11On Target2

8Off Target2

2Blocked0

14Inside Box1

7Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

332Total Passes374

220Accurate Passes277

66%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1