Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Walsall vs Hartlepool — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
G. Miller 67', 13'
C. Wilkinson 26'
O. Bogle 63'
2/26/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 34Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Walsall47%
×Draw25%
Hartlepool28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.54
Hartlepool
1.13

Walsall creates 36% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 81 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.29
Hartlepool
1.05

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Hartlepool
1.78

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Hartlepool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
72%
Walsall or Hartlepool
75%
Draw or Hartlepool
53%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
24%
Hartlepool wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
79%
Walsall 2+ goals
45%
Walsall 3+ goals
20%
Hartlepool 1+ goals
68%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
31%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
63%
Hartlepool (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Walsall scores more
47%
level
25%
Hartlepool scores more
28%

Walsall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
G. MillerWalsallWalsall · F
8.5

Match Events

13'
G. Miller↳ E. Osadebe
26'
C. Wilkinson↳ J. Labadie
46'
J. Grey← J. White
63'
O. Bogle
67'
G. Miller
75'
L. Tomlin← C. Wilkinson
75'
G. Holohan← T. Crawford
84'
M. Carver← I. Fletcher
88'
D. Rodney← G. Miller
90+3'
B. Kiernan← E. Osadebe

Possession

47%Walsall

Shots

14Walsall

Pass accuracy

49%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallHartlepool
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots12
5Corners6
13Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots12
7On Target5
5Off Target3
2Blocked4
6Inside Box8
8Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
416Total Passes460
293Accurate Passes332
70%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Offsides0

League Two: Walsall 3–1 Hartlepool

Walsall beat Hartlepool 3-1 in League Two on February 26, 2022.

Goals: G. Miller (13', 67'), C. Wilkinson (26'), O. Bogle (63').

Hartlepool controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.