Walsall 0–0 Hartlepool: Result & Stats | League One

Walsall

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hartlepool

3/10/2012

League One · Round 36The Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Walsall34%

×Draw28%

Hartlepool38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.25

Walsall

1.16

Hartlepool

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 20 away

1.07

creates per match

1.05

1.45

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Walsall

1.07

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Walsall

1.45

Hartlepool

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

62%

Walsall or Hartlepool

72%

Draw or Hartlepool

66%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

14%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

69%

Walsall 2+ goals

32%

Walsall 3+ goals

11%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

71%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

36%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

47%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.07 + Hartlepool defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Walsall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more

34%

level

28%

Hartlepool scores more

38%

Hartlepool at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

E. Smith← O. Lancashire

58'

J. Brown← L. Hawkins

66'

W. Grigg← G. Bowerman

74'

A. Chambers← J. Macken

79'

A. Boyd← J. Rowbotham

Walsall

Hartlepool

1

2

29

6

18

20

3

11

15

34

▼

Hawkins

28

▼

21

4

3

5

▼

Lancashir

12

Beevers

17

▼

11

27

25

10

▼

Macken

16

Nicholls

24'▲E. Smith←▼O. Lancashire

66'▲W. Grigg←▼G. Bowerman

74'▲A. Chambers←▼J. Macken

Walsall substitutes

6Smith9Grigg7Chambers1Walker20Jones

58'▲J. Brown←▼L. Hawkins

79'▲A. Boyd←▼J. Rowbotham

Hartlepool substitutes

7Brown10Boyd16Haslam21Rafferty19Richards