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Walsall vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
11/9/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Walsall40%
×Draw27%
Crewe32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.31
Crewe
1.14

Walsall creates 15% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 134 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.30
Crewe
1.07

allows per match

Walsall
1.20
Crewe
1.32

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par
Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
68%
Walsall or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
60%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
18%
Crewe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
73%
Walsall 2+ goals
38%
Walsall 3+ goals
14%
Crewe 1+ goals
68%
Crewe 2+ goals
32%
Crewe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
56%
Crewe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 158 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.30 + Crewe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Crewe attack 1.07 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Walsall scores more
40%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
32%

Walsall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Walsall 1–1 Crewe

Walsall and Crewe drew 1-1 in League Two on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.