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Crewe vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Crewe
Crewe
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Walsall
Walsall
A. Adomah 90', 4'
A. Pressley 83'
3/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Alexandra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Crewe31%
×Draw24%
Walsall46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crewe
1.36
Walsall
1.71

Walsall creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Crewe
1.53
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Crewe
1.64
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Crewe-0.07on par
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crewe ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Crewe or draw
54%
Crewe or Walsall
76%
Draw or Walsall
69%

Winning margin

Crewe wins by 2+
13%
Walsall wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Crewe 1+ goals
74%
Crewe 2+ goals
39%
Crewe 3+ goals
16%
Walsall 1+ goals
82%
Walsall 2+ goals
51%
Walsall 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Crewe (draw refunded)
40%
Walsall (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crewe at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 13 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crewe attack 1.53 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Walsall attack 1.78 + Crewe defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Crewe scores more
31%
level
24%
Walsall scores more
46%

Walsall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
A. AdomahWalsallWalsall · F
9.7

Match Events

4'
A. Adomah↳ C. Lakin
12'
Priestley Farquharson
16'
Alfie Pond
30'
Ian Lawlor
52'
O. Bogle← J. Powell
52'
J. Connolly← R. Hutchinson
55'
Rico Browne
66'
V. Harper← J. Okeke
66'
A. Pressley← R. Browne
72'
M. H. Sanders← C. Thomas
72'
E. Tezgel← J. March
72'
J. Lankester← M. Holicek
73'
A. Pattison← J. Jellis
81'
K. Lopata← D. Kanu
83'
A. Pressley↳ A. Adomah
90+5'
Brandon Comley
90'
A. Adomah↳ A. Pattison

Possession

66%Crewe

Shots

8Crewe

Pass accuracy

57%Crewe

Statistics

CreweWalsall
Overview
66%Possession34%
8Total Shots15
0.35Expected Goals (xG)3.64
4Corners1
16Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots15
2On Target8
2Off Target2
4Blocked5
6Inside Box11
2Outside Box4
Passing
66%Possession34%
531Total Passes269
429Accurate Passes165
81%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Crewe 0 – 3 Walsall

Walsall beat Crewe 3-0 in League Two on March 14, 2026.

Goals: A. Adomah (4', 90'), A. Pressley (83').

Crewe controlled possession (66%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Alexandra Stadium in Crewe.