Walsall 0–0 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crewe

2/21/2023

League Two · Round 22Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Walsall35%

×Draw27%

Crewe38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.29

Walsall

1.23

Crewe

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.01

creates per match

1.30

1.27

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Crewe

1.30

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Crewe

1.44

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

62%

Walsall or Crewe

73%

Draw or Crewe

65%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Crewe wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

35%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Crewe 1+ goals

72%

Crewe 2+ goals

37%

Crewe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

48%

Crewe (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Crewe attack 1.30 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more

35%

level

27%

Crewe scores more

38%

Crewe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

J. Beadle

Crewe · G

8.6

Match Events

34'

Luke Offord

45+4'

Tom Knowles

46'

A. Williams← J. Matt

67'

C. Ainley← J. Tabiner

68'

Sean Robertson

71'

D. James-Taylor← M. Stevens

71'

C. Thomas← R. Adebisi

78'

86'

89'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallCrewe

Overview

45%Possession55%

16Total Shots6

4Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots6

7On Target2

5Off Target2

4Blocked2

8Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

279Total Passes352

173Accurate Passes253

62%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

Walsall 0 – 0 Crewe

Walsall and Crewe drew 0-0 in League Two on February 21, 2023.

Crewe controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 16.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.

Walsall vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Walsall 0 – 0 Crewe