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Walsall vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Crewe
Crewe
C. Lavery 15'
O. Finney 67'
D. Powell 50'
2/1/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 31Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Walsall35%
×Draw27%
Crewe38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.23
Crewe
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
62%
Walsall or Crewe
73%
Draw or Crewe
65%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
15%
Crewe wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
71%
Walsall 2+ goals
35%
Walsall 3+ goals
13%
Crewe 1+ goals
72%
Crewe 2+ goals
37%
Crewe 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
48%
Crewe (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Crewe attack 1.30 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more
35%
level
27%
Crewe scores more
38%

Crewe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Crewe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
C. KirkCreweCrewe · F
8.0

Match Events

15'
C. Lavery
50'
D. Powell↳ P. Ng
64'
Liam Kinsella
67'
O. Finney↳ C. Kirk
68'
J. Nolan← W. McDonald
69'
C. Ainley← O. Finney
71'
D. Guthrie← N. Sheron
78'
E. Adebayo← R. Holden
79'
Shay Facey
88'
Caolan Lavery

Possession

38%Walsall

Shots

10Walsall

Pass accuracy

45%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallCrewe
Overview
38%Possession62%
10Total Shots13
1Corners7
17Fouls10
Shots
10Total Shots13
2On Target4
5Off Target9
3Blocked0
8Inside Box10
2Outside Box3
Passing
38%Possession62%
327Total Passes540
197Accurate Passes394
60%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls10
3Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Walsall vs Crewe

Crewe beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on February 1, 2020.

Goals: C. Lavery (15'), D. Powell (50'), O. Finney (67').

Crewe controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.