Walsall 0–4 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

J. Martin 90'

G. Miller 69'

I. Hutchinson 63'

H. Ashfield 56'

4/11/2026

League Two · Round 43Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall37%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.20

Walsall

1.23

Cheltenham

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.06

creates per match

1.01

1.39

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Walsall

1.06

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Walsall

1.39

Cheltenham

1.41

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Walsall-0.06on par

Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

64%

Walsall or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

63%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

16%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

35%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

70%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

34%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

51%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.06 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Walsall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more

37%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

36%

Walsall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

H. Ashfield

Cheltenham · M

8.0

Match Events

35'

Harry Ashfield

56'

H. Ashfield↳ J. Thomas

57'

Brandon Comley

63'

I. Hutchinson↳ J. Bickerstaff

64'

K. Lopata← C. Barrett

64'

R. Richards← A. Loupalo-Bi

64'

C. Clarke← B. Comley

69'

G. Miller↳ R. Cundy

70'

A. Pressley← A. Adomah

72'

G. Nurse← A. Jude-Boyd

72'

C. Deeming← H. Ashfield

76'

M. Faal← G. Miller

85'

R. Broom← J. Bickerstaff

86'

J. Martin← J. Thomas

90'

J. Martin↳ G. Nurse

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallCheltenham

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots15

1.21Expected Goals (xG)2.21

0Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots15

0On Target6

5Off Target2

3Blocked7

7Inside Box10

1Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

407Total Passes610

323Accurate Passes521

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1