Walsall 2–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League Two

Walsall

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

J. Matt 66'

N. Lowe 48'

G. Miller 85'

8/31/2024

League Two · Round 4Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Walsall36%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.22

Walsall

1.21

Cheltenham

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.06

creates per match

1.05

1.39

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Walsall

1.06

Cheltenham

1.05

allows per match

Walsall

1.39

Cheltenham

1.36

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Walsall-0.06on par

Cheltenham-0.05on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

63%

Walsall or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

64%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

70%

Walsall 2+ goals

34%

Walsall 3+ goals

12%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

70%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

34%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

50%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.06 + Cheltenham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cheltenham attack 1.05 + Walsall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more

36%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

37%

Cheltenham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

T. Allen

Walsall · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

Sam Stubbs

18'

N. Lowe← J. Gordon

26'

H. Williams← O. McEntee

38'

48'

48'

56'

56'

66'

73'

73'

74'

F. Willcox← R. Haynes

76'

85'

86'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallCheltenham

Overview

48%Possession52%

23Total Shots6

6Corners2

15Fouls11

Shots

23Total Shots6

6On Target2

13Off Target4

4Blocked0

11Inside Box5

12Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

301Total Passes339

202Accurate Passes237

67%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1

League Two: Walsall 2–1 Cheltenham

Walsall beat Cheltenham 2-1 in League Two on August 31, 2024.

Goals: N. Lowe (48'), J. Matt (66'), G. Miller (85').

Cheltenham controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 23.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.

Walsall vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Walsall 2–1 Cheltenham