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Walsall vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
J. Gordon 52' (pen)
L. Varney 58'
B. Tozer 35'
10/19/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Walsall38%
×Draw28%
Cheltenham34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.21
Cheltenham
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Cheltenham
1.41

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
66%
Walsall or Cheltenham
72%
Draw or Cheltenham
62%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
16%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
70%
Walsall 2+ goals
34%
Walsall 3+ goals
12%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
68%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
32%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
52%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more
38%
level
28%
Cheltenham scores more
34%

Walsall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
B. TozerCheltenhamCheltenham · D
8.1

Match Events

30'
Ryan Broom
35'
B. Tozer
52'
J. GordonPenalty
58'
L. Varney↳ G. Reilly
66'
Liam Kinsella
68'
R. Holden← L. Kinsella
68'
E. Adebayo← G. Liddle
76'
A. Addai← G. Reilly
77'
James Clarke
81'
Scott Flinders
84'
J. Hardy← R. Gaffney
86'
R. Ince← J. Doyle-Hayes
89'
J. Smith← L. Varney

Possession

49%Walsall

Shots

11Walsall

Pass accuracy

50%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallCheltenham
Overview
49%Possession51%
11Total Shots9
7Corners8
11Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots9
3On Target3
4Off Target1
4Blocked5
10Inside Box9
1Outside Box0
Passing
49%Possession51%
412Total Passes414
282Accurate Passes285
68%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Walsall vs Cheltenham

Cheltenham beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on October 19, 2019.

Goals: B. Tozer (35'), J. Gordon (52' pen), L. Varney (58').

Cheltenham controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.