Walsall 0–2 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cambridge United

J. Ironside 80' (pen)

P. Mullin 9' (pen)

10/27/2020

League Two · Round 9Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Walsall28%

×Draw27%

Cambridge United45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.38

Walsall

1.01

Cambridge United

1.38

Cambridge United creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.01

creates per match

1.49

1.27

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Cambridge United

1.49

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Cambridge United

1.01

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Cambridge United-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

55%

Walsall or Cambridge United

73%

Draw or Cambridge United

72%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

10%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

64%

Walsall 2+ goals

27%

Walsall 3+ goals

8%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

75%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

40%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

38%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Cambridge United defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.01

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Walsall scores more

28%

level

27%

Cambridge United scores more

45%

Cambridge United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Hannant

Cambridge United · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

P. MullinPenalty

23'

Hiram Boateng

55'

Liam Kinsella

64'

Wesley McDonald

72'

A. Bates← L. Kinsella

72'

E. Osadebe← G. Nurse

74'

J. Iredale← P. Mullin

77'

J. Scrimshaw← E. Adebayo

80'

J. IronsidePenalty

90+3'

I. El Mizouni← L. Hannant

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallCambridge

Overview

69%Possession31%

10Total Shots11

9Corners2

14Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots11

1On Target5

3Off Target4

6Blocked2

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

598Total Passes263

490Accurate Passes174

82%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Walsall vs Cambridge United

Cambridge United beat Walsall 2-0 in League Two on October 27, 2020.

Goals: P. Mullin (9' pen), J. Ironside (80' pen).

Walsall controlled possession (69%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.

Walsall vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Walsall vs Cambridge United