Cambridge United 2–0 Walsall: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Walsall

B. Knight 53', 45'

1/1/2026

League Two · Round 24Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Cambridge United45%

×Draw25%

Walsall31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.28

Cambridge United

1.60

Walsall

1.28

Cambridge United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

1.78

0.78

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Cambridge United

2.00

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.78

Walsall

1.20

+0.88scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.88scores more

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

69%

Cambridge United or Walsall

75%

Draw or Walsall

55%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

23%

Walsall wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

80%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

47%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

22%

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

37%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

59%

Walsall (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.78 · 8 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 2.00 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Walsall attack 1.78 + Cambridge United defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cambridge United scores more

45%

level

25%

Walsall scores more

31%

Cambridge United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. Knight

Cambridge United · F

8.7

Match Events

32'

45'

53'

65'

65'

P. Mpanzu← S. McLoughlin

69'

C. Clarke← J. Jellis

69'

A. Adomah← C. Barrett

73'

B. Purrington← J. Brophy

73'

S. Lavery← L. Appere

82'

E. Kachunga← B. Knight

82'

V. Harper← D. Kanu

82'

B. Comley← R. Finnigan

90+2'

Rico Browne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeWalsall

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots11

0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.42

1Corners6

14Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target3

5Off Target3

0Blocked5

7Inside Box7

1Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

426Total Passes318

300Accurate Passes195

70%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls18

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Walsall

Cambridge United beat Walsall 2-0 in League Two on January 1, 2026.

Goals: B. Knight (45', 53').

Cambridge United controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge.

Cambridge United vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Walsall