Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Walsall vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
M. Sadler 10'
J. Gordon 1'
H. Knibbs 90+2'
11/16/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 18Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall28%
×Draw28%
Cambridge United44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
0.98
Cambridge United
1.32

Cambridge United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Cambridge United
1.38

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Cambridge United
0.95

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Cambridge United-0.30scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
56%
Walsall or Cambridge United
72%
Draw or Cambridge United
72%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
10%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
62%
Walsall 2+ goals
26%
Walsall 3+ goals
8%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
73%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
38%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
38%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Cambridge United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Cambridge United attack 1.38 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Walsall scores more
28%
level
28%
Cambridge United scores more
44%

Cambridge United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
D. JonesCambridge UnitedCambridge United · M
7.8

Match Events

1'
J. Gordon↳ S. Facey
10'
M. Sadler↳ A. Bates
46'
J. Roles← P. Lewis
59'
H. Dunk← L. Davies
64'
Jack Roles
83'
R. Gaffney← C. Lavery
84'
Rory Holden
88'
E. Adebayo← J. Gordon
89'
J. Williams← G. Taft
90+2'
H. Knibbs↳ S. Smith

Possession

38%Walsall

Shots

13Walsall

Pass accuracy

43%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallCambridge
Overview
38%Possession62%
13Total Shots15
8Corners6
12Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots15
7On Target4
2Off Target9
4Blocked2
10Inside Box12
3Outside Box3
Passing
38%Possession62%
294Total Passes458
161Accurate Passes330
55%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Walsall vs Cambridge United

Walsall beat Cambridge United 2-1 in League Two on November 16, 2019.

Goals: J. Gordon (1'), M. Sadler (10'), H. Knibbs (90+2').

Cambridge United controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.