Walsall 1–3 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

F. Draper 58'

Ali Al Hamadi 83'

J. Currie 61'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans 6'

9/23/2023

League Two · Round 9Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Walsall39%

×Draw29%

AFC Wimbledon32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.06

Walsall

1.20

AFC Wimbledon

1.06

Walsall creates 13% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 73 away

1.29

creates per match

0.93

1.20

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Walsall

1.29

AFC Wimbledon

0.93

allows per match

Walsall

1.20

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walsall+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

68%

Walsall or AFC Wimbledon

71%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

61%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

17%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

70%

Walsall 2+ goals

34%

Walsall 3+ goals

12%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

65%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

29%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

55%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 157 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.29 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.93 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Walsall scores more

39%

level

29%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

32%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Ali Al Hamadi

AFC Wimbledon · F

8.9

Match Events

6'

C. Lemonheigh-Evans

21'

J. Riley← P. Farquharson

37'

Taylor Allen

46'

A. Oteh← D. Johnson

46'

H. Williams← J. Foulkes

58'

F. Draper↳ I. Hutchinson

61'

J. Currie↳ Ali Al Hamadi

72'

Isaac Ogundere

76'

A. Sasu← J. Neufville

78'

Connor Lemonheigh-Evans

80'

J. Matt← O. McEntee

83'

Ali Al Hamadi↳ J. Reeves

89'

H. Pell← Omar Bugiel

89'

J. Davison← Ali Al Hamadi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallAFC

Overview

34%Possession66%

5Total Shots15

0Corners5

9Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots15

1On Target6

1Off Target4

3Blocked5

3Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

34%Possession66%

320Total Passes632

205Accurate Passes525

64%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Walsall vs AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon beat Walsall 3-1 in League Two on September 23, 2023.

Goals: C. Lemonheigh-Evans (6'), F. Draper (58'), J. Currie (61'), Ali Al Hamadi (83').

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (66%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.

Walsall vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Walsall vs AFC Wimbledon