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AFC Wimbledon vs Walsall — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Walsall
Walsall
M. Faal 62' (OG)
R. Curtis 55'
Omar Bugiel 52', 34', 9'
I. Hutchinson 25' (pen)
4/27/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 46The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

AFC Wimbledon44%
×Draw27%
Walsall29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.39
Walsall
1.06

AFC Wimbledon creates 31% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 156 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.47
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Walsall
1.31

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
71%
AFC Wimbledon or Walsall
73%
Draw or Walsall
56%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
21%
Walsall wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
75%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
40%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
16%
Walsall 1+ goals
65%
Walsall 2+ goals
29%
Walsall 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
61%
Walsall (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Walsall attack 1.13 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
44%
level
27%
Walsall scores more
29%

AFC Wimbledon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
Omar BugielAFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon · F
9.9

Match Events

9'
Omar Bugiel↳ L. Brown
25'
I. HutchinsonPenalty
34'
Omar Bugiel↳ L. Brown
45+7'
Mo Faal
52'
Omar Bugiel↳ K. Balmer
55'
R. Curtis↳ Omar Bugiel
59'
J. Jellis← R. Stirk
62'
M. FaalOwn goal
65'
H. Pell← J. Ball
70'
J. Gordon← M. Faal
70'
D. James-Taylor← J. Matt
70'
E. Adegboyega← P. Farquharson
80'
J. Davison← Omar Bugiel
81'
J. Neufville← A. Sasu
81'
D. Johnson← T. Knowles
90+3'
I. Ogundere← K. Balmer
90+3'
J. Gordon← J. Kelly

Possession

52%AFC

Shots

6AFC

Pass accuracy

50%AFC

Statistics

AFCWalsall
Overview
52%Possession48%
6Total Shots17
2Corners3
8Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots17
5On Target3
1Off Target10
0Blocked4
6Inside Box12
0Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
397Total Passes372
291Accurate Passes269
73%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides3

League Two: AFC Wimbledon 5–1 Walsall

AFC Wimbledon beat Walsall 5-1 in League Two on April 27, 2024.

Goals: Omar Bugiel (9', 34', 52'), I. Hutchinson (25' pen), R. Curtis (55'), M. Faal (62' o.g.).

AFC Wimbledon controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 17.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.