Wals-Grünau 2–0 Rheindorf Altach II: Result & Stats

Wals-Grünau

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rheindorf Altach II

G. Brennsteiner 90'

A. Lapkalo 61'

10/5/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 10Sportplatz Bolaring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Wals-Grünau48%

×Draw22%

Rheindorf Altach II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wals-GrünauExpected goals in this matchRheindorf Altach II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.44

Wals-Grünau

1.89

Rheindorf Altach II

1.44

Wals-Grünau creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 82 away

1.87

creates per match

1.41

1.46

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Wals-Grünau

1.87

Rheindorf Altach II

1.41

allows per match

Wals-Grünau

1.46

Rheindorf Altach II

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wals-Grünau+0.00on par

Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wals-Grünau ↓

Rheindorf Altach II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Wals-Grünau or draw

70%

Wals-Grünau or Rheindorf Altach II

78%

Draw or Rheindorf Altach II

52%

Winning margin

Wals-Grünau wins by 2+

27%

Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wals-Grünau 1+ goals

85%

Wals-Grünau 2+ goals

56%

Wals-Grünau 3+ goals

29%

Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals

76%

Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals

42%

Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wals-Grünau (draw refunded)

62%

Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wals-Grünau at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Rheindorf Altach II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.91 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wals-Grünau attack 1.87 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.89

Rheindorf Altach II attack 1.41 + Wals-Grünau defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wals-Grünau scores more

48%

level

22%

Rheindorf Altach II scores more

30%

Wals-Grünau at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wals-Grünau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

J. Gerhartinger← V. Kadrija

59'

M. Schnider← Danso Djana

61'

A. Lapkalo

72'

D. Sismanlar← E. Xhelili

77'

G. Brennsteiner← C. Schnöll

87'

F. Ruf← A. Lapkalo

87'

Y. Hoffmann← S. Pajić

90'

G. Brennsteiner

Wals-Grünau

Rheindorf

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Knaus

34'▲J. Gerhartinger←▼V. Kadrija

77'▲G. Brennsteiner←▼C. Schnöll

87'▲F. Ruf←▼A. Lapkalo

87'▲Y. Hoffmann←▼S. Pajić

Wals-Grünau substitutes

GerhartingerBrennsteinerRufHoffmannRehrl

Manager: L. Ngwat-Mahop

59'▲M. Schnider←▼Danso Djana

72'▲D. Sismanlar←▼E. Xhelili

Rheindorf Altach II substitutes

SchniderSismanlarAdemiOlcumPetrovic