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Wally Daan vs Oslo — Ligue 1 2019

Wally Daan
Wally Daan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oslo
Oslo
10/26/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Stade Maniang Soumare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wally Daan43%
×Draw33%
Oslo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wally Daan
1.05
Oslo
0.70

Wally Daan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wally Daan
0.83
Oslo
0.80

allows per match

Wally Daan
0.60
Oslo
1.27

finishing

Wally Daan+0.00on par
Oslo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wally Daan ↓

Oslo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Wally Daan or draw
76%
Wally Daan or Oslo
67%
Draw or Oslo
57%

Winning margin

Wally Daan wins by 2+
17%
Oslo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wally Daan 1+ goals
65%
Wally Daan 2+ goals
28%
Wally Daan 3+ goals
9%
Oslo 1+ goals
50%
Oslo 2+ goals
16%
Oslo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wally Daan (draw refunded)
64%
Oslo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wally Daan at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Oslo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wally Daan attack 0.83 + Oslo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Oslo attack 0.80 + Wally Daan defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wally Daan scores more
43%
level
33%
Oslo scores more
24%

Wally Daan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wally Daan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wally Daan vs Oslo

Wally Daan and Oslo drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Maniang Soumare in Thiès.