Oslo 0–1 Wally Daan: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Oslo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wally Daan

3/7/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade Municipal Des Parcelles Assainies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Oslo27%

×Draw30%

Wally Daan43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OsloExpected goals in this matchWally Daan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.15

Oslo

0.85

Wally Daan

1.15

Wally Daan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

0.87

creates per match

0.83

1.47

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Oslo

0.87

Wally Daan

0.83

allows per match

Oslo

1.47

Wally Daan

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oslo+0.00on par

Wally Daan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oslo ↓

Wally Daan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Oslo or draw

57%

Oslo or Wally Daan

70%

Draw or Wally Daan

73%

Winning margin

Oslo wins by 2+

9%

Wally Daan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Oslo 1+ goals

57%

Oslo 2+ goals

21%

Oslo 3+ goals

5%

Wally Daan 1+ goals

68%

Wally Daan 2+ goals

32%

Wally Daan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oslo (draw refunded)

39%

Wally Daan (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oslo at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Wally Daan away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oslo attack 0.87 + Wally Daan defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.85

Wally Daan attack 0.83 + Oslo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oslo scores more

27%

level

30%

Wally Daan scores more

43%

Wally Daan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wally Daan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff