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Wallsend Red Devils vs Toronto Awaba Stags — NNSW League 1 2026

Wallsend Red Devils
Wallsend Red Devils
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Toronto Awaba Stags
Toronto Awaba Stags
7/27/2025NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 11Ladbrokes Gardens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Wallsend Red Devils26%
×Draw19%
Toronto Awaba Stags55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wallsend Red Devils
1.83
Toronto Awaba Stags
2.66

Toronto Awaba Stags creates 45% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Wallsend Red Devils
1.96
Toronto Awaba Stags
2.56

allows per match

Wallsend Red Devils
2.75
Toronto Awaba Stags
1.70

finishing

Wallsend Red Devils+0.00on par
Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wallsend Red Devils ↓

Toronto Awaba Stags →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Wallsend Red Devils or draw
45%
Wallsend Red Devils or Toronto Awaba Stags
81%
Draw or Toronto Awaba Stags
74%

Winning margin

Wallsend Red Devils wins by 2+
13%
Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Wallsend Red Devils 1+ goals
84%
Wallsend Red Devils 2+ goals
54%
Wallsend Red Devils 3+ goals
28%
Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals
93%
Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals
74%
Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Wallsend Red Devils (draw refunded)
32%
Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wallsend Red Devils at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

Toronto Awaba Stags away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wallsend Red Devils attack 1.96 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.83

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 2.56 + Wallsend Red Devils defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wallsend Red Devils scores more
26%
level
19%
Toronto Awaba Stags scores more
55%

Toronto Awaba Stags at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Toronto Awaba Stags will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wallsend Red Devils vs Toronto Awaba Stags

Toronto Awaba Stags beat Wallsend Red Devils 5-3 in NNSW League 1 on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Ladbrokes Gardens in Newcastle.