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Toronto Awaba Stags vs Wallsend Red Devils — NNSW League 1 2026

Toronto Awaba Stags
Toronto Awaba Stags
FT
2 – 2
Wallsend Red Devils
Wallsend Red Devils
7/12/2026NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Toronto Awaba Stags52%
×Draw22%
Wallsend Red Devils26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toronto Awaba Stags
1.97
Wallsend Red Devils
1.35

Toronto Awaba Stags creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Toronto Awaba Stags
1.48
Wallsend Red Devils
1.32

allows per match

Toronto Awaba Stags
1.38
Wallsend Red Devils
2.46

finishing

Toronto Awaba Stags+0.00on par
Wallsend Red Devils+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toronto Awaba Stags ↓

Wallsend Red Devils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Toronto Awaba Stags or draw
74%
Toronto Awaba Stags or Wallsend Red Devils
78%
Draw or Wallsend Red Devils
48%

Winning margin

Toronto Awaba Stags wins by 2+
30%
Wallsend Red Devils wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Toronto Awaba Stags 1+ goals
86%
Toronto Awaba Stags 2+ goals
58%
Toronto Awaba Stags 3+ goals
31%
Wallsend Red Devils 1+ goals
74%
Wallsend Red Devils 2+ goals
39%
Wallsend Red Devils 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Toronto Awaba Stags (draw refunded)
66%
Wallsend Red Devils (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toronto Awaba Stags at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Wallsend Red Devils away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toronto Awaba Stags attack 1.48 + Wallsend Red Devils defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.97

Wallsend Red Devils attack 1.32 + Toronto Awaba Stags defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Toronto Awaba Stags scores more
52%
level
22%
Wallsend Red Devils scores more
26%

Toronto Awaba Stags at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Toronto Awaba Stags will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Toronto Awaba Stags 2–2 Wallsend Red Devils

Toronto Awaba Stags and Wallsend Red Devils drew 2-2 in NNSW League 1 on July 12, 2026.