Wallsend Red Devils 2–3 Thornton Redbacks

Wallsend Red Devils

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Thornton Redbacks

6/25/2025

NNSW League 1 · Round 9Ladbrokes Gardens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Wallsend Red Devils37%

×Draw20%

Thornton Redbacks42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wallsend Red DevilsExpected goals in this matchThornton Redbacks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

2.19

Wallsend Red Devils

2.05

Thornton Redbacks

2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

1.96

creates per match

1.62

2.75

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Wallsend Red Devils

1.96

Thornton Redbacks

1.62

allows per match

Wallsend Red Devils

2.75

Thornton Redbacks

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wallsend Red Devils+0.00on par

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wallsend Red Devils ↓

Thornton Redbacks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Wallsend Red Devils or draw

58%

Wallsend Red Devils or Thornton Redbacks

80%

Draw or Thornton Redbacks

63%

Winning margin

Wallsend Red Devils wins by 2+

20%

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Wallsend Red Devils 1+ goals

87%

Wallsend Red Devils 2+ goals

61%

Wallsend Red Devils 3+ goals

33%

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals

89%

Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals

64%

Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Wallsend Red Devils (draw refunded)

47%

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wallsend Red Devils at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

Thornton Redbacks away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wallsend Red Devils attack 1.96 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.05

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.62 + Wallsend Red Devils defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wallsend Red Devils scores more

37%

level

20%

Thornton Redbacks scores more

42%

Thornton Redbacks at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Thornton Redbacks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff