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Thornton Redbacks vs Wallsend Red Devils — NNSW League 1 2026

Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wallsend Red Devils
Wallsend Red Devils
8/9/2025NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 18Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Thornton Redbacks40%
×Draw21%
Wallsend Red Devils39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thornton Redbacks
1.94
Wallsend Red Devils
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Thornton Redbacks
1.43
Wallsend Red Devils
1.32

allows per match

Thornton Redbacks
2.48
Wallsend Red Devils
2.46

finishing

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par
Wallsend Red Devils+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thornton Redbacks ↓

Wallsend Red Devils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Thornton Redbacks or draw
61%
Thornton Redbacks or Wallsend Red Devils
79%
Draw or Wallsend Red Devils
60%

Winning margin

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
22%
Wallsend Red Devils wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
86%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
58%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
30%
Wallsend Red Devils 1+ goals
85%
Wallsend Red Devils 2+ goals
56%
Wallsend Red Devils 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
51%
Wallsend Red Devils (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thornton Redbacks at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

Wallsend Red Devils away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.43 + Wallsend Red Devils defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.94

Wallsend Red Devils attack 1.32 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Thornton Redbacks scores more
40%
level
21%
Wallsend Red Devils scores more
39%

Thornton Redbacks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thornton Redbacks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Thornton Redbacks 1–2 Wallsend Red Devils

Wallsend Red Devils beat Thornton Redbacks 2-1 in NNSW League 1 on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 1 in Newcastle.