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Wallern / Marienkirchen vs Voitsberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wallern / Marienkirchen
Wallern / Marienkirchen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Voitsberg
Voitsberg
4/17/2026Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 23Sportanlage Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Wallern / Marienkirchen31%
×Draw21%
Voitsberg48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.76
Voitsberg
2.21

Voitsberg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Wallern / Marienkirchen
2.36
Voitsberg
2.90

allows per match

Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.51
Voitsberg
1.17

finishing

Wallern / Marienkirchen+0.00on par
Voitsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wallern / Marienkirchen ↓

Voitsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Wallern / Marienkirchen or draw
52%
Wallern / Marienkirchen or Voitsberg
79%
Draw or Voitsberg
69%

Winning margin

Wallern / Marienkirchen wins by 2+
15%
Voitsberg wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Wallern / Marienkirchen 1+ goals
83%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 2+ goals
52%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 3+ goals
26%
Voitsberg 1+ goals
89%
Voitsberg 2+ goals
65%
Voitsberg 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Wallern / Marienkirchen (draw refunded)
39%
Voitsberg (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wallern / Marienkirchen at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Voitsberg away — creates 2.90, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wallern / Marienkirchen attack 2.36 + Voitsberg defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.76

Voitsberg attack 2.90 + Wallern / Marienkirchen defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wallern / Marienkirchen scores more
31%
level
21%
Voitsberg scores more
48%

Voitsberg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Wallern / Marienkirchen 1–2 Voitsberg

Voitsberg beat Wallern / Marienkirchen 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at Sportanlage Wallern in Wallern an der Trattnach.