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Voitsberg vs Wallern / Marienkirchen — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Voitsberg
Voitsberg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wallern / Marienkirchen
Wallern / Marienkirchen
9/19/2025Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 8Munzer Bioindustrie Sportpark Voitsberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Voitsberg74%
×Draw16%
Wallern / Marienkirchen11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Voitsberg
2.63
Wallern / Marienkirchen
0.90

Voitsberg creates 192% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Voitsberg
3.50
Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.27

allows per match

Voitsberg
0.53
Wallern / Marienkirchen
1.76

finishing

Voitsberg+0.00on par
Wallern / Marienkirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Voitsberg ↓

Wallern / Marienkirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Voitsberg or draw
89%
Voitsberg or Wallern / Marienkirchen
84%
Draw or Wallern / Marienkirchen
26%

Winning margin

Voitsberg wins by 2+
52%
Wallern / Marienkirchen wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Voitsberg 1+ goals
93%
Voitsberg 2+ goals
73%
Voitsberg 3+ goals
48%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 1+ goals
59%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 2+ goals
23%
Wallern / Marienkirchen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Voitsberg (draw refunded)
87%
Wallern / Marienkirchen (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Voitsberg at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.53 · 30 matches

Wallern / Marienkirchen away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Voitsberg attack 3.50 + Wallern / Marienkirchen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.63

Wallern / Marienkirchen attack 1.27 + Voitsberg defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Voitsberg scores more
74%
level
16%
Wallern / Marienkirchen scores more
11%

Voitsberg at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Voitsberg vs Wallern / Marienkirchen

Voitsberg beat Wallern / Marienkirchen 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Munzer Bioindustrie Sportpark Voitsberg in Voitsberg.