Wales U19 1–0 Scotland U19: Result & Stats

Wales U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Scotland U19

G. Biancheri 18'

11/13/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wales U1937%

×Draw31%

Scotland U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wales U19Expected goals in this matchScotland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.95

Wales U19

1.03

Scotland U19

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

0.17

creates per match

0.90

1.00

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Wales U19

0.17

Scotland U19

0.90

allows per match

Wales U19

1.00

Scotland U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wales U19+0.00on par

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Wales U19 or draw

68%

Wales U19 or Scotland U19

69%

Draw or Scotland U19

63%

Winning margin

Wales U19 wins by 2+

14%

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wales U19 1+ goals

64%

Wales U19 2+ goals

28%

Wales U19 3+ goals

9%

Scotland U19 1+ goals

61%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

25%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wales U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales U19 at home — creates 0.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales U19 attack 0.17 + Scotland U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Scotland U19 attack 0.90 + Wales U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wales U19 scores more

37%

level

31%

Scotland U19 scores more

32%

Wales U19 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wales U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

G. Biancheri

55'

A. Borland← K. Ure

55'

S. Chambers← R. MacLeod

63'

O. Bostock← E. Myles

69'

L. Giles← Z. Giggs

77'

C. Twose← A. Tuck

77'

A. Bavidge← M. Campbell

78'

G. Morgan← G. Biancheri

78'

T. George← V. Yoganathan

86'

B. Rice← R. Molotnikov

86'

D. Cummings← D. Smith

90+4'

J. Dede

Wales

Scotland

1

2

11

4

5

▼

Smith

18

▼

Campbell

8

Miller

16

▼

Ure

10

▼

Molotniko

7

▼

9

1

5

4

2

8

11

▼

Myles

6

▼

Tuck

10

▼

Yoganatha

7

Issaka

19

▼

Giggs

9

⚽

▼

Biancheri

Manager: C. Gunter

63'▲O. Bostock←▼E. Myles

69'▲L. Giles←▼Z. Giggs

77'▲C. Twose←▼A. Tuck

78'▲G. Morgan←▼G. Biancheri

78'▲T. George←▼V. Yoganathan

Wales U19 substitutes

15Bostock3Giles17Twose14Morgan16George20Allen18Lawlor13Mafico12Margetson

Manager: N. MacFarlane

55'▲A. Borland←▼K. Ure

55'▲S. Chambers←▼R. MacLeod

77'▲A. Bavidge←▼M. Campbell

86'▲B. Rice←▼R. Molotnikov

86'▲D. Cummings←▼D. Smith

Scotland U19 substitutes

6Borland17Chambers19Bavidge14Rice20Cummings13Watret15Sutherland3Grant12Williamson

Match Recap: Wales U19 vs Scotland U19

Wales U19 beat Scotland U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2024.

Goals: G. Biancheri (18').

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.

Wales U19 vs Scotland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wales U19 vs Scotland U19