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Wales U19 vs Scotland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Wales U19
Wales U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Scotland U19
Scotland U19
N. Williams 68'
B. Gilmour 85' (pen), 60'
11/14/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Corbett Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wales U1915%
×Draw17%
Scotland U1969%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wales U19
1.17
Scotland U19
2.67

Scotland U19 creates 128% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Wales U19
1.00
Scotland U19
2.33

allows per match

Wales U19
3.00
Scotland U19
1.33

finishing

Wales U19+0.00on par
Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wales U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Wales U19 or draw
31%
Wales U19 or Scotland U19
83%
Draw or Scotland U19
85%

Winning margin

Wales U19 wins by 2+
5%
Scotland U19 wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Wales U19 1+ goals
69%
Wales U19 2+ goals
33%
Wales U19 3+ goals
11%
Scotland U19 1+ goals
93%
Scotland U19 2+ goals
74%
Scotland U19 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Wales U19 (draw refunded)
18%
Scotland U19 (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wales U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wales U19 attack 1.00 + Scotland U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Scotland U19 attack 2.33 + Wales U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Wales U19 scores more
15%
level
17%
Scotland U19 scores more
69%

Scotland U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
B. Gilmour
68'
N. Williams
85'
B. GilmourPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship: Wales U19 1–2 Scotland U19

Scotland U19 beat Wales U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 14, 2018.

Goals: B. Gilmour (60', 85' pen), N. Williams (68').

The match was played at Corbett Sports Stadium in Y Rhyl / Rhyl, Denbighshire.