Waldhof Mannheim 2–0 Eintracht Frankfurt

Waldhof Mannheim

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Frankfurt

J. Boyamba 52'

M. Seegert 48'

8/8/2021

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundCarl-Benz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Waldhof Mannheim26%

×Draw21%

Eintracht Frankfurt53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Waldhof MannheimExpected goals in this matchEintracht Frankfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

2.14

Waldhof Mannheim

1.47

Eintracht Frankfurt

2.14

Eintracht Frankfurt creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

1.50

creates per match

2.28

2.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Waldhof Mannheim

1.50

Eintracht Frankfurt

2.28

allows per match

Waldhof Mannheim

2.00

Eintracht Frankfurt

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waldhof Mannheim+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waldhof Mannheim ↓

Eintracht Frankfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Waldhof Mannheim or draw

47%

Waldhof Mannheim or Eintracht Frankfurt

79%

Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt

74%

Winning margin

Waldhof Mannheim wins by 2+

12%

Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Waldhof Mannheim 1+ goals

77%

Waldhof Mannheim 2+ goals

43%

Waldhof Mannheim 3+ goals

18%

Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals

88%

Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals

63%

Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Waldhof Mannheim (draw refunded)

33%

Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waldhof Mannheim at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waldhof Mannheim attack 1.50 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 2.28 + Waldhof Mannheim defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Waldhof Mannheim scores more

26%

level

21%

Eintracht Frankfurt scores more

53%

Eintracht Frankfurt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Seegert

Waldhof Mannheim · D

7.9

Match Events

8'

12'

21'

26'

42'

46'

48'

M. Seegert↳ M. Schnatterer

52'

J. Boyamba↳ D. Martinović

53'

A. Younes← Tuta

62'

Martin Hinteregger

62'

Martin Hinteregger

67'

A. Barkok← J. Lindstrøm

68'

Gonçalo Paciência← R. Borré

74'

R. Garcia← D. Martinović

80'

A. Lebeau← J. Boyamba

80'

S. Zuber← D. da Costa

85'

M. Gottschling← M. Schnatterer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaldhofEintracht

Overview

27%Possession73%

12Total Shots11

3Corners6

9Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots11

9On Target1

1Off Target5

2Blocked5

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

27%Possession73%

209Total Passes569

123Accurate Passes476

59%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1