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Waldhof Mannheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt — DFB Pokal 2018

Waldhof Mannheim
Waldhof Mannheim
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
J. Marx 72'
V. Sulejmani 11', 3'
A. Rebić 88', 81', 76'
F. Kostić 45+1'
D. Kamada 21'
8/11/2019DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundCarl-Benz-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Waldhof Mannheim26%
×Draw21%
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waldhof Mannheim
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.14

Eintracht Frankfurt creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

Waldhof Mannheim
1.50
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.28

allows per match

Waldhof Mannheim
2.00
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.44

finishing

Waldhof Mannheim+0.00on par
Eintracht Frankfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waldhof Mannheim ↓

Eintracht Frankfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Waldhof Mannheim or draw
47%
Waldhof Mannheim or Eintracht Frankfurt
79%
Draw or Eintracht Frankfurt
74%

Winning margin

Waldhof Mannheim wins by 2+
12%
Eintracht Frankfurt wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Waldhof Mannheim 1+ goals
77%
Waldhof Mannheim 2+ goals
43%
Waldhof Mannheim 3+ goals
18%
Eintracht Frankfurt 1+ goals
88%
Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
63%
Eintracht Frankfurt 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Waldhof Mannheim (draw refunded)
33%
Eintracht Frankfurt (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waldhof Mannheim at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Eintracht Frankfurt away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waldhof Mannheim attack 1.50 + Eintracht Frankfurt defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Eintracht Frankfurt attack 2.28 + Waldhof Mannheim defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Waldhof Mannheim scores more
26%
level
21%
Eintracht Frankfurt scores more
53%

Eintracht Frankfurt at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Eintracht Frankfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
A. RebićEintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt · F
9.2

Match Events

3'
V. Sulejmani↳ M. Deville
11'
V. Sulejmani↳ M. Christiansen
21'
D. Kamada
25'
Filip Kostic
34'
Max Christiansen
45+1'
F. Kostić↳ D. Abraham
46'
E. Durm← D. da Costa
50'
Marcel Seegert
58'
Gonçalo Paciência← D. Joveljić
63'
A. Ferati← G. Korte
67'
J. Koffi← V. Sulejmani
72'
J. Marx↳ J. Koffi
75'
M. Gaćinović← G. Fernandes
76'
A. Rebić
81'
A. Rebić↳ F. Kostić
84'
M. Çelik← M. Christiansen
88'
A. Rebić↳ D. Kohr

Possession

39%Waldhof

Shots

12Waldhof

Pass accuracy

46%Waldhof

Statistics

WaldhofEintracht
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots24
3Corners9
7Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots24
6On Target11
4Off Target8
2Blocked5
8Inside Box16
4Outside Box8
Passing
39%Possession61%
330Total Passes498
231Accurate Passes411
70%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
5Offsides6

Match Recap: Waldhof Mannheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt beat Waldhof Mannheim 5-3 in DFB Pokal on August 11, 2019.

Goals: V. Sulejmani (3', 11'), D. Kamada (21'), F. Kostić (45+1'), J. Marx (72'), A. Rebić (76', 81', 88').

Eintracht Frankfurt controlled possession (61%) and registered 24 shots to 12.

The match was played at Carl-Benz-Stadion in Mannheim.