Waldgirmes 5–1 Viktoria Griesheim: Result & Stats

Waldgirmes

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Viktoria Griesheim

3/18/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 27Kunstrasenplatz Lahnau-Waldgirmes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Waldgirmes53%

×Draw21%

Viktoria Griesheim26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaldgirmesExpected goals in this matchViktoria Griesheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.46

Waldgirmes

2.13

Viktoria Griesheim

1.46

Waldgirmes creates 46% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 58 away

1.88

creates per match

1.19

1.73

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Waldgirmes

1.88

Viktoria Griesheim

1.19

allows per match

Waldgirmes

1.73

Viktoria Griesheim

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waldgirmes+0.00on par

Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waldgirmes ↓

Viktoria Griesheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Waldgirmes or draw

74%

Waldgirmes or Viktoria Griesheim

79%

Draw or Viktoria Griesheim

47%

Winning margin

Waldgirmes wins by 2+

31%

Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Waldgirmes 1+ goals

88%

Waldgirmes 2+ goals

63%

Waldgirmes 3+ goals

35%

Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals

77%

Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals

43%

Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Waldgirmes (draw refunded)

67%

Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waldgirmes at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.73 · 92 matches

Viktoria Griesheim away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waldgirmes attack 1.88 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.13

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.19 + Waldgirmes defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Waldgirmes scores more

53%

level

21%

Viktoria Griesheim scores more

26%

Waldgirmes at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Waldgirmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff