Viktoria Griesheim 4–3 Waldgirmes: Result & Stats

Viktoria Griesheim

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Waldgirmes

9/4/2022

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 7Südstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Viktoria Griesheim48%

×Draw21%

Waldgirmes30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Viktoria GriesheimExpected goals in this matchWaldgirmes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.59

Viktoria Griesheim

2.05

Waldgirmes

1.59

Viktoria Griesheim creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 92 away

1.81

creates per match

1.51

1.67

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Viktoria Griesheim

1.81

Waldgirmes

1.51

allows per match

Viktoria Griesheim

1.67

Waldgirmes

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par

Waldgirmes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Griesheim ↓

Waldgirmes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Viktoria Griesheim or draw

70%

Viktoria Griesheim or Waldgirmes

79%

Draw or Waldgirmes

52%

Winning margin

Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+

28%

Waldgirmes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals

87%

Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals

61%

Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals

33%

Waldgirmes 1+ goals

80%

Waldgirmes 2+ goals

47%

Waldgirmes 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)

62%

Waldgirmes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Griesheim at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.67 · 58 matches

Waldgirmes away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.29 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.81 + Waldgirmes defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.05

Waldgirmes attack 1.51 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Viktoria Griesheim scores more

48%

level

21%

Waldgirmes scores more

30%

Viktoria Griesheim at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Viktoria Griesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff