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Waldgirmes vs FC 1906 Erlensee — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Waldgirmes
Waldgirmes
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
5/28/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - Promotion Round - 10Stadion in den Lahnauen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Waldgirmes49%
×Draw22%
FC 1906 Erlensee29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waldgirmes
1.93
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.44

Waldgirmes creates 34% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 57 away

creates per match

Waldgirmes
1.88
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.16

allows per match

Waldgirmes
1.73
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.98

finishing

Waldgirmes+0.00on par
FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waldgirmes ↓

FC 1906 Erlensee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Waldgirmes or draw
71%
Waldgirmes or FC 1906 Erlensee
78%
Draw or FC 1906 Erlensee
51%

Winning margin

Waldgirmes wins by 2+
28%
FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Waldgirmes 1+ goals
85%
Waldgirmes 2+ goals
57%
Waldgirmes 3+ goals
30%
FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
76%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
42%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Waldgirmes (draw refunded)
63%
FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waldgirmes at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.73 · 92 matches

FC 1906 Erlensee away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waldgirmes attack 1.88 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.93

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 1.16 + Waldgirmes defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Waldgirmes scores more
49%
level
22%
FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
29%

Waldgirmes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Waldgirmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waldgirmes vs FC 1906 Erlensee

Waldgirmes beat FC 1906 Erlensee 3-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion in den Lahnauen in Lahnau.