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FC 1906 Erlensee vs Waldgirmes — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Waldgirmes
Waldgirmes
8/27/2022Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 6Sportzentrum Erlensee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

FC 1906 Erlensee51%
×Draw21%
Waldgirmes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC 1906 Erlensee
2.16
Waldgirmes
1.57

FC 1906 Erlensee creates 38% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 92 away

creates per match

FC 1906 Erlensee
2.02
Waldgirmes
1.51

allows per match

FC 1906 Erlensee
1.63
Waldgirmes
2.29

finishing

FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par
Waldgirmes+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC 1906 Erlensee ↓

Waldgirmes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC 1906 Erlensee or draw
72%
FC 1906 Erlensee or Waldgirmes
79%
Draw or Waldgirmes
49%

Winning margin

FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
30%
Waldgirmes wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
88%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
63%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
36%
Waldgirmes 1+ goals
79%
Waldgirmes 2+ goals
46%
Waldgirmes 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
64%
Waldgirmes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC 1906 Erlensee at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.63 · 56 matches

Waldgirmes away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.29 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 2.02 + Waldgirmes defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.16

Waldgirmes attack 1.51 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
51%
level
21%
Waldgirmes scores more
28%

FC 1906 Erlensee at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC 1906 Erlensee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC 1906 Erlensee vs Waldgirmes

Waldgirmes beat FC 1906 Erlensee 3-2 in Oberliga - Hessen on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Erlensee in Erlensee.