Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Waldgirmes vs Eddersheim — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Waldgirmes
Waldgirmes
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Eddersheim
Eddersheim
10/12/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 15Kunstrasenplatz Lahnau-Waldgirmes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Waldgirmes40%
×Draw22%
Eddersheim38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waldgirmes
1.81
Eddersheim
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 91 away

creates per match

Waldgirmes
1.88
Eddersheim
1.78

allows per match

Waldgirmes
1.73
Eddersheim
1.75

finishing

Waldgirmes+0.00on par
Eddersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waldgirmes ↓

Eddersheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Waldgirmes or draw
62%
Waldgirmes or Eddersheim
78%
Draw or Eddersheim
60%

Winning margin

Waldgirmes wins by 2+
21%
Eddersheim wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Waldgirmes 1+ goals
84%
Waldgirmes 2+ goals
54%
Waldgirmes 3+ goals
27%
Eddersheim 1+ goals
83%
Eddersheim 2+ goals
52%
Eddersheim 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Waldgirmes (draw refunded)
52%
Eddersheim (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waldgirmes at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.73 · 92 matches

Eddersheim away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.75 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waldgirmes attack 1.88 + Eddersheim defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Eddersheim attack 1.78 + Waldgirmes defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Waldgirmes scores more
40%
level
22%
Eddersheim scores more
38%

Waldgirmes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Waldgirmes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Waldgirmes 3–3 Eddersheim

Waldgirmes and Eddersheim drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Lahnau-Waldgirmes in Lahnau.