Eddersheim 4–1 Waldgirmes: Result & Stats

Eddersheim

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Waldgirmes

5/4/2025

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 34Sportplatz an der Staustufe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Eddersheim53%

×Draw21%

Waldgirmes26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EddersheimExpected goals in this matchWaldgirmes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.43

Eddersheim

2.12

Waldgirmes

1.43

Eddersheim creates 48% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

1.95

creates per match

1.51

1.34

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Eddersheim

1.95

Waldgirmes

1.51

allows per match

Eddersheim

1.34

Waldgirmes

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eddersheim+0.00on par

Waldgirmes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eddersheim ↓

Waldgirmes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Eddersheim or draw

74%

Eddersheim or Waldgirmes

79%

Draw or Waldgirmes

47%

Winning margin

Eddersheim wins by 2+

32%

Waldgirmes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eddersheim 1+ goals

88%

Eddersheim 2+ goals

62%

Eddersheim 3+ goals

35%

Waldgirmes 1+ goals

76%

Waldgirmes 2+ goals

42%

Waldgirmes 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Eddersheim (draw refunded)

67%

Waldgirmes (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eddersheim at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

Waldgirmes away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.29 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eddersheim attack 1.95 + Waldgirmes defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.12

Waldgirmes attack 1.51 + Eddersheim defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Eddersheim scores more

53%

level

21%

Waldgirmes scores more

26%

Eddersheim at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Eddersheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff