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Wakiso Giants vs URA — Premier League 2019

Wakiso Giants
Wakiso Giants
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
URA
URA
2/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Kabaka Kyabaggu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Wakiso Giants35%
×Draw28%
URA38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wakiso Giants
1.16
URA
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 98 away

creates per match

Wakiso Giants
1.36
URA
1.13

allows per match

Wakiso Giants
1.31
URA
0.96

finishing

Wakiso Giants+0.00on par
URA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wakiso Giants ↓

URA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wakiso Giants or draw
62%
Wakiso Giants or URA
72%
Draw or URA
65%

Winning margin

Wakiso Giants wins by 2+
14%
URA wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wakiso Giants 1+ goals
69%
Wakiso Giants 2+ goals
32%
Wakiso Giants 3+ goals
11%
URA 1+ goals
70%
URA 2+ goals
34%
URA 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)
48%
URA (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wakiso Giants at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

URA away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.96 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wakiso Giants attack 1.36 + URA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

URA attack 1.13 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wakiso Giants scores more
35%
level
28%
URA scores more
38%

URA at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wakiso Giants 1–0 URA

Wakiso Giants beat URA 1-0 in Premier League on February 13, 2024.

The match was played at Kabaka Kyabaggu Sports Stadium in Wakiso.