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URA vs Wakiso Giants — Premier League 2019

URA
URA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wakiso Giants
Wakiso Giants
10/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Mehta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

URA53%
×Draw27%
Wakiso Giants20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URA
1.43
Wakiso Giants
0.76

URA creates 88% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 84 away

creates per match

URA
1.51
Wakiso Giants
0.76

allows per match

URA
0.76
Wakiso Giants
1.35

finishing

URA+0.00on par
Wakiso Giants+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URA ↓

Wakiso Giants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

URA or draw
80%
URA or Wakiso Giants
73%
Draw or Wakiso Giants
47%

Winning margin

URA wins by 2+
27%
Wakiso Giants wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

URA 1+ goals
76%
URA 2+ goals
42%
URA 3+ goals
17%
Wakiso Giants 1+ goals
53%
Wakiso Giants 2+ goals
18%
Wakiso Giants 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

URA (draw refunded)
73%
Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URA at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.76 · 100 matches

Wakiso Giants away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.35 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URA attack 1.51 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Wakiso Giants attack 0.76 + URA defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

URA scores more
53%
level
27%
Wakiso Giants scores more
20%

URA at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: URA 1–0 Wakiso Giants

URA beat Wakiso Giants 1-0 in Premier League on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Mehta Stadium in Lugazi.