Wakiso Giants 1–3 Kitara: Result & Stats

Wakiso Giants

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Kitara

10/25/2023

Premier League · Round 5Kabaka Kyabaggu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Wakiso Giants41%

×Draw26%

Kitara33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wakiso GiantsExpected goals in this matchKitara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.21

Wakiso Giants

1.38

Kitara

1.21

Wakiso Giants creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 57 away

1.36

creates per match

1.11

1.31

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Wakiso Giants

1.36

Kitara

1.11

allows per match

Wakiso Giants

1.31

Kitara

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wakiso Giants+0.00on par

Kitara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wakiso Giants ↓

Kitara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wakiso Giants or draw

67%

Wakiso Giants or Kitara

74%

Draw or Kitara

59%

Winning margin

Wakiso Giants wins by 2+

19%

Kitara wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wakiso Giants 1+ goals

75%

Wakiso Giants 2+ goals

40%

Wakiso Giants 3+ goals

16%

Kitara 1+ goals

70%

Kitara 2+ goals

34%

Kitara 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wakiso Giants (draw refunded)

55%

Kitara (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wakiso Giants at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

Kitara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wakiso Giants attack 1.36 + Kitara defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kitara attack 1.11 + Wakiso Giants defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wakiso Giants scores more

41%

level

26%

Kitara scores more

33%

Wakiso Giants at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wakiso Giants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff