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Waidhofen / Thaya vs Gloggnitz — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Waidhofen / Thaya
Waidhofen / Thaya
FT
0 – 0
Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
5/10/2024Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 25Birkenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Waidhofen / Thaya24%
×Draw26%
Gloggnitz50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waidhofen / Thaya
0.98
Gloggnitz
1.53

Gloggnitz creates 56% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 29 away

creates per match

Waidhofen / Thaya
0.93
Gloggnitz
1.62

allows per match

Waidhofen / Thaya
1.44
Gloggnitz
1.03

finishing

Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par
Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waidhofen / Thaya ↓

Gloggnitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Waidhofen / Thaya or draw
50%
Waidhofen / Thaya or Gloggnitz
74%
Draw or Gloggnitz
76%

Winning margin

Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+
9%
Gloggnitz wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals
62%
Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals
26%
Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals
8%
Gloggnitz 1+ goals
78%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
45%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)
33%
Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waidhofen / Thaya at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.44 · 54 matches

Gloggnitz away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.93 + Gloggnitz defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Gloggnitz attack 1.62 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Waidhofen / Thaya scores more
24%
level
26%
Gloggnitz scores more
50%

Gloggnitz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gloggnitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waidhofen / Thaya vs Gloggnitz

Waidhofen / Thaya and Gloggnitz drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Birkenstadion in Waidhofen/Thaya.