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Gloggnitz vs Waidhofen / Thaya — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
FT
5 – 0
Waidhofen / Thaya
Waidhofen / Thaya
10/7/2023Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 10Krammer-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gloggnitz72%
×Draw17%
Waidhofen / Thaya11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloggnitz
2.38
Waidhofen / Thaya
0.82

Gloggnitz creates 190% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 55 away

creates per match

Gloggnitz
2.21
Waidhofen / Thaya
0.71

allows per match

Gloggnitz
0.93
Waidhofen / Thaya
2.55

finishing

Gloggnitz+0.00on par
Waidhofen / Thaya+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloggnitz ↓

Waidhofen / Thaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gloggnitz or draw
89%
Gloggnitz or Waidhofen / Thaya
83%
Draw or Waidhofen / Thaya
28%

Winning margin

Gloggnitz wins by 2+
49%
Waidhofen / Thaya wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gloggnitz 1+ goals
91%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
68%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
42%
Waidhofen / Thaya 1+ goals
56%
Waidhofen / Thaya 2+ goals
20%
Waidhofen / Thaya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
86%
Waidhofen / Thaya (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloggnitz at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

Waidhofen / Thaya away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.55 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloggnitz attack 2.21 + Waidhofen / Thaya defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.38

Waidhofen / Thaya attack 0.71 + Gloggnitz defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Gloggnitz scores more
72%
level
17%
Waidhofen / Thaya scores more
11%

Gloggnitz at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Gloggnitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gloggnitz vs Waidhofen / Thaya

Gloggnitz beat Waidhofen / Thaya 5-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Krammer-Arena in Gloggnitz.